Geography: Definition, Scope and Themes, 1.2. However, inEthiopia, as it is a highland country, tropical temperature conditions have no full spatialcoverage. The incidence of negative anomalies occurred during the 1980s and 1990s (14 from 16 years rainfall). The reduction in precipitation is projected to be steepest over Northwestern Province and lessens southwards. 2012). Thus, the rainfall system in Ethiopia is characterized by spatial and temporalvariabilities.Rainfall in Ethiopia is the result is influenced by the position of Intertropical Convergence Zone(ITCZ). 2017a, 2017b). However, it hasno significant coverage compared to other seasons. Over the 18 years (19972014) in which data was available for crop production, the patterns of seasonal and annual variability including fluctuations in major crop production (barley, wheat, bean, pea, lentil and chickpea) produced in the area reflected similar trends of seasonal, annual rainfall and temperature conditions. Throughout the year, 1,160 mm (46 in) of rain fall, with a maximum from June to September, which is the only remarkably rainy period. In this study, to manage the data quality, data series were plotted in order to identify the outliers. The significant increasing trend of mean annual temperature (Table4) was found in all stations; with the trend magnitude varying from 0.03 to 0.14 C/year respectively. Precipitation projections indicate increased mean precipitation with more frequent extreme rainfall during monsoon season in the EH region, and a wetter cold season in the WH region. The study watershed lies between 39 37E39 32E and 9 40N9 41N. Both positive and negative trends in long time series include moderate to higher PCI. Spatiotemporal Distribution of Rainfall Rainfall system in Ethiopia is characterized by complexities. Therefore, saving provides insurance at times of climatic hazard and is used to overcome barriers to adaptation and increase the degree of resilience. Barley, bean and chickpea show significant correlation with maximum temperature. Spatiotemporal Distribution of TemperatureAltitude is an important element in determining temperature of Ethiopia and the Horn. The minimum temperatures increased at a higher rate than the maximum temperatures during winter, summer, autumn and also at the annual timescale. In Ethiopia, as in allplaces in the tropics, the air is frost free and changes in solar angles are small making intensesolar radiation. Time series of all MMA precipitation indices exhibit significant increasing trends over the 19012099 period. Mean annual minimum and maximum temperatures increased from 12.69 to 13.32 C and 26.43 to 26.91 C from 1981 to 2010, respectively. To encompass the system, it needs an understanding of the position of Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITC), pressure cells, and Trade Winds. Tmean, the mean annual temperature; Tmin, minimum annual temperature; Tmax, maximum annual temperature. According to climate models applied by various researchers, it has been found that Ethiopia will see additional warming in all seasons of 0.72.3 C by the 2020s and 1.42.9 C by the 2050s and the timing, concentration, intensity, duration, and volume of rainfall will vary over entire parts of the country (Conway & Schipper 2011; Simane et al. 2016). 2013; Pachauri et al. The MannKendall test results showed that the annual and seasonal rainfall trend was highly variable. Therefore, community-based soil and water conservation practices help the communities to diversify their livelihood activities. 2001; Kurukulasuriya & Mendelsohn 2008). Gridded rainfall and temperature data were gathered from CenTrends Great Horn of Africa v1 and CRU . Five years moving average rainfall (19802014). It identifies regions that are experiencing particularly severe climate change impacts. Observed Data Correlation between crop production, and rainfall and temperature (19972014). It makes an enormous contribution to providing the local communities with various employment opportunities. A significant increase in annual mean temperature was observed in all stations, with the magnitude varying from 0.03 C/year and 7.60% in DB station to 0.14 C/year and 31.30% at SD station. Water Resources Potentials and Development in Ethiopia, CHAPTER FIVE THE CLIMATE OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN, 5.2. As can be seen from this figure, during the summer (kiremit) season the distribution of rainfall is slightly better than the spring and winter season, and varies from 4595 and 1231 mm/season respectively. Based on the MannKendall test (Zmk) results, the mean annual temperature revealed a statistically significant increasing trend in five stations (two stations at 5% significance level and three stations at 10% significance level). Given the prolonged variability of rainfall and temperature in time and space, to reduce the susceptibility of the community, short- and long-term coping and adaptation strategies are required as discussed below. The impact of climate change is a global threat, and its effect is more pronounced in developing countries. Abstract: Since China announced its goal of becoming carbon-neutral by 2060, carbon neutrality has become a major target in the development of China's urban agglomerations. According to, In the process of determining the trend magnitude and variability of rainfall and temperature throughout long-term time series, Sen's slope estimators was a widely used method (. All year-round rainfall regionIt has many rainy days than any part of the country. Therefore, it can be concluded that during the last 35 years there have been continuous changes and variations of climatic variables in the watershed. Another study by Di Falco et al. doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2018.064. The principal sources of uncertainty for the indicators and modelling results are discussed and, where appropriate, reflected in the assessments. Many researchers have undertaken trend analysis studies of the climate in some other parts of Ethiopia (Addisu et al. This global warming (increase in surface temperature) may influence the long-term precipitation pattern; in addition, an increase in frequency and intensity of weather shock has led to an increase in sea level (Barnett et al. (2011), adaptation strategies are an important mechanism for managing climatic change and variability. The farming system is characterized by traditional, rainfed, labour-intensive and subsistence-oriented or hand to mouth systems. Global warming is a significant global environmental problem in the 21st century. The analysis of vulnerability related to climate changes in Ethiopia implies that in the coming decades climate variability and volatility will threaten the social and economic order (damage to natural resources, agricultural productivity, water resources and ecosystems); therefore, the incidence and intensity of drought and famine occurrence is likely to increase. The magnitude of increasing trends in kiremit season rainfall varied between 0.33 mm/year and a percentage change of 6.13% (DBS station) to 1.62 mm/year and 31.79% (DB). Even though the rainfall indicates seasonal and inter-annual variability, the area is characterized by a bimodal rainfall regime, with maximum rainfall concentration during kiremit (summer) season, which extends from June to September. Rainfall Regions of EthiopiaBased on rainfall distribution, both in space and time, four rainfall regions can be identifiedin Ethiopia and the Horn. To encompass the system, it needsan understanding of the position of Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITC), pressure cells, andTrade Winds. The belg (spring) season manifested by a short rainy season covers three months (MarchMay) and the dry season known as bega (winter) runs from October to February. The moving average is possibly acquired by considering the initial subset average. Ethiopias daily temperatures are more extreme than its annual averages. Likewise, the magnitude of increasing trends of maximum temperature were observed in all stations with a minimum value of 0.023 C/year in GIN station and a maximum value of 0.21 C/year in ENW station. The period from March to May, as often happens in Ethiopia, is the warmest of the year, albeit by a few degrees. According to a report made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Parry 2007; Pachauri et al. Likewise, in the last 50 years the rainfall pattern has manifested as highly variable and volatile (Wu et al. The shift takes place when the trade winds from the north retreat giving the space forequatorial westerlies. Seasonal analysis of rainfall obtained from MK test statistic results are presented in Table3. Climatic variability in the past has been increasing and from the trends suggested in different studies, may further increase in the near future, putting urgent emphasis on how the community perceives the extent of climate change in order to design coping and adaptation strategies (Belay et al. The monthly rainfall data are for 132 points of 10 10 km grids reconstructed from weather stations and meteorological satellite observations, which cover the period between 1983 and 2013. This study assessed the historical (1983-2005) and future (2026-2100) rainfall, maximum temperature (Tmax), and minimum temperature (Tmin) trends of the Ziway Lake Basin (Ethiopia). This is because the temperature and the amount of energy reaching the surface isdirectly related with the directness of the sun.The direction of rain bearing winds (leeward or windward side) also determines the temperaturevariations in mountainous regions. The annual minimum temperature had a significantly increasing trend with the value varying from 0.005 C/year and 1.90% in GIN station to 0.12 C/year and 52.40% in the DBS station. The present results are in agreement with Parry (2007), who stated that due to a prolonged increase in the emission of gases through human activities and expansion of industry, the surface temperature has increased by about 1 C. However, local farmers evaluate climatic variability in relation to their crop productivity. Understanding projections of extreme precipitation is part of a resilient response to its impacts. Some of the studies conducted are based on areal averages of spatial climatic variability (Seleshi & Demaree 1995; Osman & Sauerborn 2001). In line with Rashid et al. The trend of increasing maximum temperature is stronger than the minimum temperature. In this season, the effect of the northeast trade wind is very muchreduced. The CMIP5 datasets were statistically downscaled by using the climate model data for hydrologic modeling (CMhyd) tool and bias corrected using the distribution mapping method available in the CMhyd tool. Therefore, given the prolonged climatic variability of the Beressa watershed, the following coping and adaptation mechanisms are suggested. Sorry, preview is currently unavailable. During the winter season, the Redsea escarpments and some parts of the Afar region receive their main rain. Both increasing and decreasing trends of climatic variables were observed. The present study aimed to undertake spatiotemporal analysis of seasonal and annual rainfall and temperature and its implications. However, during bega season the trend of all stations was downward. Latitude,humidity and winds, with varying magnitude have also significant impacts on temperatureconditions in Ethiopia. Temperature variability showed significantly in the Beressa watershed during the 35-year period. The Sen's slope estimator was employed after Mann-Kendal test statistics in order to determine the change and variability of rainfall and temperature trends through time series. 2015). When the tropical depression is observed in the SWIO, the daily rainfall is significantly decreased. Water harvesting is particularly important for less rainy seasons and integrated water management, and will provide supplementary irrigation during deficits. This happens because the MT-CLIM algorithms VIC incorporates infer an overly large positive trend in atmospheric moisture content in this region, likely due to an underestimate of the effect of increasing aridity on RH. 2014). Fine-scale hydrological simulations driven by the global model results should reproduce these trends. Rainfall and temperature trends detection is vital for water resources management and decision support systems in agro-hydrology. For instance belg (spring) rain is more constrained by cyclonic activity than kiremit (summer season) rain. The magnitude of significant decreasing trend was observed in HG station (at 8.62 mm/year and 27.88%). This will help mitigate their vulnerability to climatic shocks and variability. Other studies have focused on very limited stations and arrived at a conclusion regarding the characteristics of spatial climatic variability for entire regions (Gamachu 1988; Meze-Hausken 2004). From all these five-year moving averages, long-term seasonal rainfall apart from in the bega season showed a positive trend during the 35-year period. This is probably due to the fluctuation and variability of the seasonal and inter-annual rainfall pattern of the Beressa watershed during the last few decades, as indicated in Table3, which is similar to other studies (Muhire & Ahmed 2015; Zhao et al. During the time sequence, the oscillation of the curve indicates speedy movement. The coefficient of variation is higher during the rainfall in the bega and belg seasons than the rainy season (kiremit rainfall season), as shown in Table2. Global climate models predict relative humidity (RH) in the western US will decrease at a rate of about 0.1 0.6 percentage points per decade, albeit with seasonal differences (most drying in spring and summer), geographical variability (greater declines in the interior), stronger reductions for greater anthropogenic radiative forcing, and notable spread among the models. Because of the rainfall-dependent farming practice, farmers are always worried about the duration and intensity of rainfall. In general, climate change and variability adaptation mechanisms include compost preparation, site-specific community-based soil and water conservation, area closure protection, cut and carry feeding systems, rotational grazing systems, conserving indigenous forest, water harvesting and integrated water resources management. Assessing the long-term spatiotemporal rainfall distribution pattern is the most significant component in the climate analysis of a given country, more specifically at the local and regional levels where the effect of climate change is worse. Tesfa Worku, Deepak Khare, S. K. Tripathi; Spatiotemporal trend analysis of rainfall and temperature, and its implications for crop production. Results of correlation analysis between monthly and seasonal rainfall with crop production were insufficient to conclude the impact of rainfall and temperature on crop production. The monthly maximum and minimum temperatures are for the same points and girds, but cover the period 1981-2011. The present study aimed to undertake spatiotemporal analysis of seasonal and annual rainfall and temperature and its implications. Generally, as can be seen from Figure3, there has been a high increase in overall temperature, which may result in a decrease in productivity and food insecurity. Elements and Controls of Weather and Climate, 5.3. The correlation between rainfall during the months of MaySeptember and crops has a positive relationship, except in the cases of beans, peas and chickpeas, which are inversely correlated with rainfall during the month of June. Here are the average temperatures. 5.3.2. The daily observed rainfall and temperature data at eleven stations were obtained from the National Meteorological Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia, while simulated historical and future climate data were obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) datasets under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) of 4.5 and 8.5. A climate impact study in the Upper Blue Nile, North American Climate in CMIP5 Experiments. Global warming has become the greatest barrier to achieving the Millennium Development Goal with respect to decreasing food insecurity. The calculated PCI for seasonal as well as inter-annual rainfall distribution for the spatiotemporal time series is shown in Table2. Both duration and amount ofrainfall decreases as we move from southwest to north and eastwards. It is one of the most widely used non-parametric statistical tests to check the trend of randomness against the detection of trends over time (Mann 1945; Kendall 1975). 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